The Braunagel Team
Tom Braunagel- Listing Specialist
126 Monroe Turnpike, Trumbull, CT. 06611
Q3- 2015 Market Report for Trumbull:
The following information is about our local real estate market here in Trumbull. I am a real estate agent, business owner and raised my family all here in Trumbull. I’ve been in business for 11 years and have seen both sides of soaring and crashing markets. I’ve made money and lost money in these markets and learned a ton. I’m a retired Network Engineer and understand the value of good information with a keen sense of how to interpret that information into knowledge to help people buy, sell and invest in real estate. Information is presented below and it is my hope you can use it to make great decisions about real estate. If there’s other information you’d like to see, just ask and I’ll do my best to bring it to you. It is my intent to become your local real estate resource and it would be my privilege to represent you in a transaction when you’re ready to buy, sell or invest in real estate.
The first thing I look at is the Trumbull Real Estate Market as a whole. How does the Trumbull Real Estate Market look like today compared to the past. Are we trending more positive, negative or staying the same? Then, once we understand what’s happening with real estate in our town, we can drill down deeper to what’s relevant to you and your home specifically. In your price range in town and see how that’s different from the averages:
1. Homes Active for sale VS. Homes Pending:
The dynamics of this graph reveals a lot about our market. Each graph by itself tells a story of how many homes are active or are under contract (Pending) at various times of the year. It shows us when activity is the heaviest and when buyers are out buying at various points throughout the year. This by itself gives us information to learn about our market. When you consider the interaction between the two graphs… Active vs. Pending, it provides a new dimension and means to measure the desirability of our houses to new buyers. The closer the lines are to converging, the higher the desirability of our homes in our town to potential buyers. Another way to say the same thing is the more homes pending and the fewer homes active, the higher the desirability. This goes on to say the higher the desirability, the more likely our home values trend up. So, as a home owner, we like to see these lines converge over time. As you can see, our cycle repeats itself. The lines converge in the winter time…when most people take their homes off the market. This actually represents a great time to find a buyer. The percentage of homes coming off the market is higher than the percentage of buyers leaving the market…so you actually have more people looking at your house in the winter time than any other time. Buyers are active all 4 seasons here in CT.
October, November and December represent great times to sell homes for several reasons. 1. During those 3 months, it is typical to see the number of active homes drop more significantly than the number of pending homes. Looking at Q4 2014, pending activity fell less than 1% while active homes fell 18%. Buyers are still active and have less to choose from… which increases your chance to get your home sold.
Once I understand what’s happening to the market at large, I like to find out what’s happening in my price range, in my town. As you can imagine, the town real estate market as a whole can be sluggish, but there can be lots of life within certain price ranges within the same town. Ask these owners how the market is doing and you’ll hear words like Amazing, Sensational and Awesome. So, let’s drill down below where we take a look at Activity, Months on the Market, Number of Active Homes AND Price per square foot of homes sold….All compared to their price range they represent. THEN, figure out where you’re house is priced (I can help you …simply ask) and see how your house would perform on the market today should you determine to sell….
2. Number of Homes Sold PER PRICE RANGE- broken down Quarterly and Yearly:
This graph breaks down the sheer number of homes sold in a given price range. If your home is in a price range with a lot of activity, there’s a high likelihood that you home will sell quickly if we price it right in the market. With high activity, you’ll learn about the salability of your home quickly….so pay attention to what the market is telling you and adjust quickly before your house comes out of favor. Also, use the number of Homes Sold information in conjunction with the Number of Active Homes for Sale. We love to see buyers looking to buy homes like ours with low inventory. It helps pull our prices up and as a seller, that’s what you went to hear!
These graphs show us what houses and which price points are hot and selling in Trumbull. The first graph looks at houses sold in Q3 2014 and compares it to same time this year. It tells us that houses priced up to $450,000 are more active than same time last year and home prices under $350,000 are significantly more active this year than the entire last year. Also worth noting, houses priced between $550,000 and $650,000 also saw a modest increase in activity both quarter over quarter AND year over year. If your home is in these price ranges, this is good news for you. Houses priced under $350k in Trumbull tend to be smaller homes and often times, houses below $250k are in need of updating and typically sold to investors who rehabilitate and build bigger and more expensive ones. As our market continues to improve, I anticipate the $450k to $550k price points will enter into our most active range as these homes come into favor.
3. Active Homes PER PRICE RANGE- broken down Quarterly and Yearly:
This graph shows you the total number of ACTIVE homes on the market in each price range. Regardless of how many homes are on the market in town, or in your neighborhood, or even on your street, there could be a significant difference in your ability to sell your house based on what price range your home is in versus the other homes you’re comparing to. If the number of Active homes in your price range is low, or trending low when compared to last year, that could be a good sign. Especially if the number of homes selling in your price range is up or trending higher than last year. Take a look at the performance of homes in your price range to get an idea of how your house would perform if you listed it…
The number of active houses for sale in 2015 is higher than our last year in 2014 for both the year totals and when comparing Q3 2015 with Q3 2014. The extra houses on the market is keeping the supply plentiful and our home prices at bay as buyers are under little pressure to act quickly. The largest number of homes on the market today are in the $350,000 to $450,000 range. Despite all the competition in this price range, these houses are flying off the shelf. As you’ll see in the next section, there are just over 6 months of inventory on the market at this price with almost 50 homes sold per month in Q3 alone. This is the sweet spot in Trumbull and represents the price range in Trumbull with the highest volume of sales this past quarter. Compare these 50 homes that sold against just 17 homes that sold at the next highest bracket $450,000 to $550,000 this past quarter. If your home is in this higher price range, fewer homes are selling with almost 12 months of inventory on the market. One would expect that you would need to be more aggressive with the pricing and valuation of your home at this price based on the competition in the market. Sometimes, a simple marketing adjustment can be made to your home and reducing a $450,000 price to $425,000 would put your home in a much better environment to sell in and would certainly sell quicker.
4. Months of Inventory PER PRICE RANGE- broken down Quarterly and Yearly:
This graph shows you the number of months of inventory we have on the market PER price range. It is calculated based on the number of homes that are selling verse the number of homes on the market. It’s the normalizer. Despite the number of homes that are selling, this graph puts it into perspective in relationship to the number of homes on the market. A high number of homes on the market can be offset by a large number of homes selling. The higher the number of months of inventory, the tougher it will be to sell. The opposite is true too… the lower the number of months of inventory, the easier it will be to sell.
This graph shows you the number of months of inventory in Trumbull per price range. It represents the average number of months it would take to sell all homes in a particular price range at the given number of sales that month. For example, If your house is somewhere between $450,000 and $550,000, it would take approximately 12 months to sell all the homes currently for sale according to Q3 2015. This is considerably higher than same time Q3 2014. As a general rule of thumb, if your house were priced ‘average’ in the market, you would expect to sell your house in 12 months. The more aggressive you price and market your home, the faster the sale. Also, the longer it takes to sell a home, the more pressure there is to reduce the price. It is important to note that a balanced market that is neither applying pressure to increase or decrease prices is about 6 months inventory. So, if your house is priced at $450,000, it’s a tough place to be right now. Generally speaking, Trumbull is not seeing a lot of price appreciation due to the supply of inventory on the market. The activity is strong as can be seen by the sold charts above. As fast as the houses are selling however, new ones hit the market. We’re definitely still in a recovery mode and until we churn through all the people who tried to sell their home in the past, I expect there to be little appreciation in the coming year.
5. Price per Square Foot PER PRICE RANGE- broken down Quarterly and Yearly:
This graph shows you the average price per square foot in each price range homes are selling in Trumbull. You can see how each price range commands a different price per square foot… The more expensive homes typically have higher end appliances, expensive mill work, moldings, etc, and consequently have a higher price per square foot. The price per square foot typically changes year over year and is the proof that homes in a particular price range are in demand. A home in demand would be evidenced by high trending sales volume, low trending actives on the market and escalating trending price per square foot.
The price per square foot ranges prove that condition plays a big part of the price you’ll get for your house. Smaller, first time home buyer homes typically are no frills with basic construction and decor. That price point appears to be the $350,000 to $450,000 price point and is fairly consistent at $196.00 per square foot. The zero to $250,000 price points are typically older, more run down, needs work and many are purchased by investors looking to fix them up and resell at a profit. They are selling at $150 to $165 per square foot. The $550,000 to $650,000 saw a nice increase year over year from $190 to $215 per square foot and the most expensive priced houses are enjoying the highest prices per square foot at $220-$225. How your house is decorated, what kind of appliances you have, how updated kitchens, bathrooms and rooms are, craftsmanship and overall quality of your house all go into increasing your price per square foot on the home. Be mindful that you can also over improve based on the price point and area your house is in. Be mindful to not over improve your home and be at risk of topping off the price of your home regardless of what new improvements you make. If your house is among the most expensive in your area, you may be at risk of not getting the value you might otherwise want for the improvements you make. A great realtor can help you with that assessment.
We welcome you to the Braunagel Team and hope you find this information helpful whether you’re just curious about the real estate market in Trumbull, curious about the value of your home or thinking about buying or selling real estate in the Trumbull area. Through our relationships, The Braunagel Team can uncover the value of your home as marketed by various websites on the Internet today. If you’re interested in seeing what the value of your home is, simply visit: BraunagelTeam.Smarthomeprice.com. If you believe that price is wrong, call me. Through our relationships with these ‘Big Data’ companies we can update the price of your home through the use of a market analysis, which we submit to update your online value. This is a free service I offer to my neighbors and friends in Trumbull. It helps keep the prices of our homes real and updated. The benefit is that potential buyers see true market value online make offers more in line with the true of our homes. Look up the value of your home. If you think it needs adjustment, Call Me. If there’s anything else I can do for you, please let me know.
You may find this analysis online at my blog: blog.onlinecthomes.com. Feel free to forward this to other family or friends in town that would benefit by it.
Finally, I’d be honored to be part of your real estate plans. Please call me. I’d love an opportunity to help you with your plans, no matter what or where they are.
Tom Braunagel at the Braunagel Team….. Taking you from Possibility to Reality!